Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.122358 1.275333 1.437348 1.621285 1.823873 2.039750 2.286732
2025-02-02 0.897257 1.104970 1.338997 1.620543 1.948316 2.316090 2.758098
2025-02-09 0.718136 0.956937 1.242539 1.605355 2.049742 2.571912 3.227114
2025-02-16 0.580612 0.837301 1.162918 1.598800 2.158746 2.845192 3.740620
2025-02-23 0.454149 0.711478 1.058340 1.547749 2.206587 3.047883 4.186302
2025-03-02 0.345150 0.590356 0.942462 1.466538 2.205584 3.187464 4.563514
2025-03-09 0.278550 0.518376 0.883941 1.455463 2.295808 3.452043 5.122561
2025-03-16 0.220775 0.448716 0.818113 1.424759 2.354051 3.676525 5.643299
2025-03-23 0.188218 0.414458 0.801713 1.465594 2.518849 4.060919 6.410093
2025-03-30 0.146477 0.354420 0.733556 1.415777 2.540950 4.240110 6.896483
2025-04-06 0.117889 0.312567 0.689491 1.398941 2.611129 4.493253 7.503981
2025-04-13 0.092595 0.270756 0.638120 1.362185 2.644110 4.690069 8.037319
2025-04-20 0.078088 0.250015 0.625371 1.396061 2.803478 5.103551 8.939286
2025-04-27 0.065218 0.229461 0.609527 1.422358 2.952559 5.511348 9.857709
2025-05-04 0.053163 0.207033 0.585599 1.429962 3.069292 5.874315 10.726667
2025-05-11 0.043470 0.187682 0.564745 1.440796 3.192525 6.255690 11.645916
2025-05-18 0.033330 0.162572 0.525044 1.406826 3.228542 6.490736 12.338588
2025-05-25 0.024138 0.135724 0.474497 1.341466 3.197000 6.605194 12.835724
2025-06-01 0.019121 0.121483 0.453471 1.338817 3.287958 6.940585 13.721200
2025-06-08 0.014570 0.106217 0.425700 1.316050 3.335306 7.199066 14.486101
2025-06-15 0.012432 0.100676 0.425222 1.359114 3.522737 7.724539 15.738151
2025-06-22 0.009030 0.085938 0.392274 1.315907 3.522324 7.898581 16.377805
2025-06-29 0.006880 0.076107 0.372335 1.302878 3.585450 8.195178 17.247349